AWWA WQTC71548

This paper presents a novel approach to evaluating the efficacy of drinking water contamination warning systems through the use of computer simulations. A mathematical model of a fully deployed contamination warning system was developed, which includes the four monitoring and surveillance components and the decision-making framework of consequence management. This model will be used in a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the system against thousands of contamination scenarios. A large ensemble consisting of more than half a million scenarios will be screened to select a couple thousand scenarios that represent the range of feasible incidents. As with any system designed to detect extremely rare events, the sustainability of a drinking water contamination warning system hinges on dual-use applications, and realization of day-to-day benefits from system operation. Likewise, the simulation study architecture presented in this paper has many potential applications to water quality monitoring programs beyond the immediate application to drinking water security. Includes 8 references, tables, figures.